How many people will you be playing with?

[Kaisermn]

There has been alot of talk about homesteads and tribes (large and small) etc... With a tribe being limited to more than 4 people, I was wondering how many players will be homesteaders and how many will have enough friends ingame to start a tribe.

[FabricSoftener]

this is a good poll idea.

[Kaisermn]

Thank you. I noticed the other polls set the parameters between 1 player, then 2-9, then 9+. With the tribe minimum set to 5 it seemed like it would be a better way to analyze the player base.

[Kaisermn]

umm... lol. It's only been 20 minutes. I set this poll to run for 10 days.

[Kaisermn]

You are right about this poll being unweighted. It will actually not reflect the playerbase data, but only the data of the players that browse the forum and vote in this particular poll. Also, people in tribes that may tend to look at the forum more than casual single players (who may not necessarily check the forum evryday or at all) may tilt the data in that direction. Fortunately however, there are ways to analyze the data and get a good general idea what the population in game will look like re. homesteads, tribal areas and towns. IRL I work as an analyst at Cisco Systems and I find this type of stuff fascinating. And before you say it, yes, I am an ubernerd :)

[FabricSoftener]

You are right about this poll being unweighted. It will actually not reflect the playerbase data, but only the data of the players that browse the forum and vote in this particular poll. Also, people in tribes that may tend to look at the forum more than casual single players (who may not necessarily check the forum evryday or at all) may tilt the data in that direction. Fortunately however, there are ways to analyze the data and get a good general idea what the population in game will look like re. homesteads, tribal areas and towns. IRL I work as an analyst at Cisco Systems and I find this type of stuff fascinating. And before you say it, yes, I am an ubernerd :)

actually I think forums give a good sample of the population (given your stats background you clearly know I am explicting using those terms for a reason), granted the sample doesnt provide enough of the overall population to get a comfortable 90% but overtime I think it could get in tha 70%ish range.

many game features are decided by unique posts on forums pages!

[Kaisermn]

actually I think forums give a good sample of the population (given your stats background you clearly know I am explicting using those terms for a reason), granted the sample doesnt provide enough of the overall population to get a comfortable 90% but overtime I think it could get in tha 70%ish range.

many game features are decided by unique posts on forums pages!

Oh I absolutely agree with you on that the game definitely benefits from players' posts and that the posts are a great way for the developpers to guage what they are doing right or wrong to keep the player base happy. I'm only hoping to simplify the question of "What will the player base look like? will they live mostly in towns and villages? or mostly in homesteads?"

As far as % of the entire game population represented by the poll, I don't know that yet. But in 10 days when the poll closes, I will see how many people voted and try to find out what the number of people playing the game is.

[Chavoda]

90% of the player base in-game does not come on the forum and are mis-informed. a simple look in global chat shows that ;)
the only true poll a dev could do is a in-game one running for a week then you reach everyone (99%)

Polls on forums are silly snapshots of the current tough of the current forum visitors, not the game player base. only thing a forum is good for is for the collection of information and creating awareness of game-play issue's what then would require a in-game-poll to see if its really a issue or a vocal group not being happy.

[Kaisermn]

Kaisermn...what metrics are you using to classify the solo players as casual? According to them, they are the real hardcore players!

You could just as easily say that the members of large tribes come to the forum less because the information here is disseminated via their own forums and voice chat by a few members who lurk here. Hopi has over 40 members, but I can only recall seeing posts from a handful of their members.

To your first question: I am only basing this on my own opinion of what a casual player might be like in re. to forum participation. I am a casual player, I have a busy schedule and a kid that I am raising on my own. I will probably be in game less that 10 hours a week. But I browse the forum often from work. But is this the way it is with all casual players? I don't know.

Also, you make a good point re. large tribes where only one or two may browse the forum and deciminate the information via chat to the rest of the tribe members. Again, will this mean that they will be under represented? again, I don't know.

What I do know, is that I am sitting in my office at work and I am between projects atm, I will over the next few days think about a good way to figure out participation in the forums. How? maybe by looking at previous polls that deal with this subject.

If you have any ideas on how to figure out what the player base looks like, or if you know already, please let me know :)

[FabricSoftener]

90% of the player base in-game does not come on the forum and are mis-informed. a simple look in global chat shows that ;)
the only true poll a dev could do is a in-game one running for a week then you reach everyone (99%)



what I was refering to was the number of people in a sample based on overall population that can give you 90% accuracy of what the population is using a fairly common stastical forumla.
That said, without knowing what the population actually is , getting the sample is guess work.

[Kaisermn]

90% of the player base in-game does not come on the forum and are mis-informed. a simple look in global chat shows that ;)
the only true poll a dev could do is a in-game one running for a week then you reach everyone (99%)

Polls on forums are silly snapshots of the current tough of the current forum visitors, not the game player base. only thing a forum is good for is for the collection of information and creating awareness of game-play issue's what then would require a in-game-poll to see if its really a issue or a vocal group not being happy.

I agree that the players that visit the forums are not, by any means a big percentage of the player base, actually, 1 in 10 is a good number to go on.

But a poll does not need to be anywhere near 99% to be effective. Think of the national political polls you see on CNN and HN etc... They only poll a random sample of the population, say 5000 people, and get a good idea of political leanings for the pouplation in general. And usually they are right, this is because they apply different formulas to weed out random and bad data that affect the results. Then they say "This is within x% and x% margin of error"... but then again, this is why god inventented statistics.

[Doc]

I agree that the players that visit the forums are not, by any means a big percentage of the player base, actually, 1 in 10 is a good number to go on.

But a poll does not need to be anywhere near 99% to be effective. Think of the national political polls you see on CNN and HN etc... They only poll a random sample of the population, say 5000 people, and get a good idea of political leanings for the pouplation in general. And usually they are right, this is because they apply different formulas to weed out random and bad data that affect the results. Then they say "This is within x% and x% margin of error"... but then again, this is why god inventented statistics.

Dont bother. Ive seen enough posts on various forums that claim that if you dont ask everyonre poll/survey is invalid. Actually i think they dont realize how many decisions in the world are based on statistics/probability.

[Furyk]

And the world is in a better place then it was thanks to all the polls...


I will make a poll thread too, polls are the new cool.

[Kaisermn]

And the world is in a better place then it was thanks to all the polls...


I will make a poll thread too, polls are the new cool.

LMFAO. I hope a statitician is born? Can you make a poll that determines how cool polls are?

[Chavoda]

Dont bother. Ive seen enough posts on various forums that claim that if you dont ask everyonre poll/survey is invalid. Actually i think they dont realize how many decisions in the world are based on statistics/probability.

The world is build out of false polls and surve's using caucualtion that favor the the group it needs it favor. :P its the lack of having a save secure easy way to cast a vote on a goverment isseu taht creates the 5k-500k invalid survee's ( its funy to see how much money is made by companys that do this stuff for groups/corps/goverments)

A game however can code in a in game poll system that requires everyone to vote ( or" press dont want to vote button") and thus giving true results.

[Kaisermn]

The world is build out of false polls and surve's using caucualtion that favor the the group it needs it favor. :P its the lack of having a save secure easy way to cast a vote on a goverment isseu taht creates the 5k-500k invalid survee's ( its funy to see how much money is made by companys that do this stuff for groups/corps/goverments)

A game however can code in a in game poll system that requires everyone to vote ( or" press dont want to vote button") and thus giving true results.

You are right. One of my first jobs in statistics was working for a company that worked for the laywers who represented tobacco companies in lawsuits. We worked with mortality and morbidity data and twisted the numbers so much that we proved, statistically speaking, that smoking has no effect whatsoever on your health. Come to think of it, that tribe would probably be aligned evil ;)

It all depends on the agenda of the group doing the analysis. Fortunately however, I have no agenda, I just want to find out what the gameworld will look like. Mostly scattered homesteads? Mostly scatterred villages? or mostly scattered towns?

[Kaisermn]

by the way, does anyone know how many 10+ people tribes there are so far ingame?

[TweFoju]

Well, my Tribe consist of 9 people so far

but i believe it's going to be rare to see a Tribe of more than 50 in this game ever

[Kaisermn]

What I meant was, does anyone know the number of tribes that have 10 or more people? Are there 10 such tribes? 20 such tribes? how many such tribes are there? This will help me figure out how to calculate the number of responses per group.

[Kaisermn]

The poll is not invalid unless you try to tout it as universally definitive. It's an accurate depiction of the opinions of those who answered it. What it is *not* is an accurate depiction of the opinions of the playerbase as a whole. The only way you could come close is if you weighed the number of votes against the total number of registered users...and even then you would have things that skew the results.

Sure, and I intend to fully do that.

Also the replies themselves are revealing, but the added feature of being able to see who voted for what can be used to correct the data for a more accurate picture.

For example, already:

3 people who polled for 10+ come from the Hopi tribe. 1 person (you) who voted 10+ already stated in a previuos post in this thread (post #2 I believe) that his tribe is "I think 5 people" which means you provided an incorrect data point. And that is ok, it will give me an idea on how to factor the final results :)

[Kaisermn]

nope, but that is ok, I'm sure others will make the same error. It is good to catch these things early because it allows me to factor in such things as someone pushing the wrong button. You can find out who voted for what in any poll by clicking on the number of votes in the poll graph.

[otomotopia]

I did? I thought I voted for the other one.
He did vote for the other one. we had 9 members at the time.

But, this has jumped. Dreampod's in, tommy, and Blaspheme's so fustrated about earthrise that he's thinking about it.

[Doc]

The world is build out of false polls and surve's using caucualtion that favor the the group it needs it favor. :P its the lack of having a save secure easy way to cast a vote on a goverment isseu taht creates the 5k-500k invalid survee's ( its funy to see how much money is made by companys that do this stuff for groups/corps/goverments)

A game however can code in a in game poll system that requires everyone to vote ( or" press dont want to vote button") and thus giving true results.

Polls theselves are not false (if not rigged intentionally one or other way). You can get good data and estimation from them if you want to. How will you bend results, or what method will you use or any other missuse of actual results is what is wrong. Although in this particualar poll you yourself can see the results and judge for yourself on raw data.

And i assure you they dont need to poll this, they have actual data from the game :)

Oh, and just to include one banal but effective example:

Was watching TV and tv station proudly advertise that some show had 75% watch rating (or whatever its called in English), and of course asterisk at the end of their gloriuos announcement, and letters so small at the bottom of the screen that you couldnt read it (and i have a good sight). So next time their glorious announcement came on and i jumped to read what it says, i had to get to 3 cm of screen to do that, and it said "*women age 28-33".

[Kaisermn]

So far, from responses made by people, not only to this pole, but to others as well the world is looking something like this:

~ 14 Tribes that are >= 10
~ 80 Tribes that are >= 5 < 10
~ 200 Homesteads.

this is of course, very, very, VERY, general.

Do you guys think that sounds accurate?

[Larsa]

So far, from responses made by people, not only to this pole, but to others as well the world is looking something like this:

~ 14 Tribes that are >= 10
~ 80 Tribes that are >= 5 < 10
~ 200 Homesteads.

this is of course, very, very, VERY, general.

Do you guys think that sounds accurate?It's a good guess. Doesn't really matter whether the numbers are correct, it's the trend that matters and you got that one right.

The underlying thing of course is that the game experience of people in a large tribe (practically everything with more than 10 members) will be a vastly different one than the game experience of people that play solo or in small groups of less than 5 members. This isn't the first game and won't be the last one where large guilds from beta and multi-game guilds will race to the top in no time while the solo and small tribe players will be struggling to get something done. It's just the nature of the beast.

The problem of course is that the large guilds will achieve their goals rather soon and will be looking for other goals. I hope they can find their goals in this game and don't think about moving on to the next big thing. I also hope they will let the solo and small tribe players alone instead of trying to dominate the server.

We will see how it pans out. Interesting times ahead indeed. :)

[Risk]

I've played with,
Shinra
Hopi
and a few others...
I solo now...after a year its easy... but Im not a coger..even days before final wipe I've helped new players get a grasp of the game...thats what I do..help new players get a grasp..not by giving them the tools but by teaching them to make the tools and know how to protect them...

Still gunna be the first to give a Cat Hat to dev...but I'll help every new player I run into I can in any way I can....

[Doc]

I've played with,
Shinra
Hopi
and a few others...
I solo now...after a year its easy... but Im not a coger..even days before final wipe I've helped new players get a grasp of the game...thats what I do..help new players get a grasp..not by giving them the tools but by teaching them to make the tools and know how to protect them...

Still gunna be the first to give a Cat Hat to dev...but I'll help every new player I run into I can in any way I can....

Does offereing to carry their tools for a while count as helping? You know, tools can be heavy and encumber you... ;P

[Risk]

lol if haulin tools hurts ya...gl haulin lumber for your tribe or homested..
Pure strengthh do not match a man in this game, Simple judgment helped me free Tallac of its curses...."an idiot attacks head on"...
Yet I cured that land on idiots...
Your tools will help you ten fold if you use them correctly...