How many people will you be playing with?

[Kaisermn]

90% of the player base in-game does not come on the forum and are mis-informed. a simple look in global chat shows that
the only true poll a dev could do is a in-game one running for a week then you reach everyone (99%)

Polls on forums are silly snapshots of the current tough of the current forum visitors, not the game player base. only thing a forum is good for is for the collection of information and creating awareness of game-play issue's what then would require a in-game-poll to see if its really a issue or a vocal group not being happy.

I agree that the players that visit the forums are not, by any means a big percentage of the player base, actually, 1 in 10 is a good number to go on.

But a poll does not need to be anywhere near 99% to be effective. Think of the national political polls you see on CNN and HN etc... They only poll a random sample of the population, say 5000 people, and get a good idea of political leanings for the pouplation in general. And usually they are right, this is because they apply different formulas to weed out random and bad data that affect the results. Then they say "This is within x% and x% margin of error"... but then again, this is why god inventented statistics.

[Doc]

I agree that the players that visit the forums are not, by any means a big percentage of the player base, actually, 1 in 10 is a good number to go on.

But a poll does not need to be anywhere near 99% to be effective. Think of the national political polls you see on CNN and HN etc... They only poll a random sample of the population, say 5000 people, and get a good idea of political leanings for the pouplation in general. And usually they are right, this is because they apply different formulas to weed out random and bad data that affect the results. Then they say "This is within x% and x% margin of error"... but then again, this is why god inventented statistics.

Dont bother. Ive seen enough posts on various forums that claim that if you dont ask everyonre poll/survey is invalid. Actually i think they dont realize how many decisions in the world are based on statistics/probability.

[Furyk]

And the world is in a better place then it was thanks to all the polls...


I will make a poll thread too, polls are the new cool.

[Kaisermn]

And the world is in a better place then it was thanks to all the polls...


I will make a poll thread too, polls are the new cool.

LMFAO. I hope a statitician is born? Can you make a poll that determines how cool polls are?

[Chavoda]

Dont bother. Ive seen enough posts on various forums that claim that if you dont ask everyonre poll/survey is invalid. Actually i think they dont realize how many decisions in the world are based on statistics/probability.

The world is build out of false polls and surve's using caucualtion that favor the the group it needs it favor. :P its the lack of having a save secure easy way to cast a vote on a goverment isseu taht creates the 5k-500k invalid survee's ( its funy to see how much money is made by companys that do this stuff for groups/corps/goverments)

A game however can code in a in game poll system that requires everyone to vote ( or" press dont want to vote button") and thus giving true results.

[Kaisermn]

The world is build out of false polls and surve's using caucualtion that favor the the group it needs it favor. :P its the lack of having a save secure easy way to cast a vote on a goverment isseu taht creates the 5k-500k invalid survee's ( its funy to see how much money is made by companys that do this stuff for groups/corps/goverments)

A game however can code in a in game poll system that requires everyone to vote ( or" press dont want to vote button") and thus giving true results.

You are right. One of my first jobs in statistics was working for a company that worked for the laywers who represented tobacco companies in lawsuits. We worked with mortality and morbidity data and twisted the numbers so much that we proved, statistically speaking, that smoking has no effect whatsoever on your health. Come to think of it, that tribe would probably be aligned evil

It all depends on the agenda of the group doing the analysis. Fortunately however, I have no agenda, I just want to find out what the gameworld will look like. Mostly scattered homesteads? Mostly scatterred villages? or mostly scattered towns?

[Kaisermn]

by the way, does anyone know how many 10+ people tribes there are so far ingame?

[TweFoju]

Well, my Tribe consist of 9 people so far

but i believe it's going to be rare to see a Tribe of more than 50 in this game ever

[Kaisermn]

What I meant was, does anyone know the number of tribes that have 10 or more people? Are there 10 such tribes? 20 such tribes? how many such tribes are there? This will help me figure out how to calculate the number of responses per group.

[Kaisermn]

The poll is not invalid unless you try to tout it as universally definitive. It's an accurate depiction of the opinions of those who answered it. What it is *not* is an accurate depiction of the opinions of the playerbase as a whole. The only way you could come close is if you weighed the number of votes against the total number of registered users...and even then you would have things that skew the results.

Sure, and I intend to fully do that.

Also the replies themselves are revealing, but the added feature of being able to see who voted for what can be used to correct the data for a more accurate picture.

For example, already:

3 people who polled for 10+ come from the Hopi tribe. 1 person (you) who voted 10+ already stated in a previuos post in this thread (post #2 I believe) that his tribe is "I think 5 people" which means you provided an incorrect data point. And that is ok, it will give me an idea on how to factor the final results